Scenario 1: AI potential to Disrupt Job Market

Timeframe 2019 – 2022:
Increasing Disruptions of Job Market, Income Distribution

 Situation:  Up to 50% of all jobs vulnerable to AI and automation
– Large swaths of society could lose incomes, self-respect, hope
– Job-Retraining on such a massive scale nearly impossible
– Older, less educated or otherwise disadvantaged persons most vulnerable

– Growth of new jobs likely much slower than job elimination
– “Universal Income” likely to face stiff resistance, especially in US

Potential Effects:  Social and Political Instability and Upheaval
– Unemployed frequently feel displaced and victimized
– Unemployed will remain largely idle and vulnerable to outside influence
– Populist movements like Brexit, Trump, Marie La Penn may increase

– Unemployed tempted by the promise “make things great again’
– Possible rise of fundamentalist/revisionist religions and sects
– Possible rise of “Anti AI” right-wing / anarchists / fringe groups
– Possible rise of Class Divisions and Class Hatred or Racial Conflict
– Possible rise of International Conflict, Nationalism, perhaps Wars

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