Scenario 1: AI potential to Disrupt Job Market

Timeframe 2019 – 2022:
Increasing Disruptions of Job Market, Income Distribution

 Situation:  Up to 50% of all jobs vulnerable to AI and automation
– Large swaths of society could lose incomes, self-respect, hope
– Job-Retraining on such a massive scale nearly impossible
– Older, less educated or otherwise disadvantaged persons most vulnerable

– Growth of new jobs likely much slower than job elimination
– “Universal Income” likely to face stiff resistance, especially in US

Potential Effects:  Social and Political Instability and Upheaval
– Unemployed frequently feel displaced and victimized
– Unemployed will remain largely idle and vulnerable to outside influence
– Populist movements like Brexit, Trump, Marie La Penn may increase

– Unemployed tempted by the promise “make things great again’
– Possible rise of fundamentalist/revisionist religions and sects
– Possible rise of “Anti AI” right-wing / anarchists / fringe groups
– Possible rise of Class Divisions and Class Hatred or Racial Conflict
– Possible rise of International Conflict, Nationalism, perhaps Wars

Why All this Fuss about Artificial Intelligence?

The Disruptive force of Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Many thought leaders believe AI could be the largest disruption and greatest challenge ever to human society, and are deeply concerned:
– Stephen Hawking
– Bill Gates
– Elon Musk
– Stuart Russell
– Nick Bostrom
– Max Tegmark

The Speed of AI development is Increasing Exponentially
– Moores law is expected to hold at least 10 more years, i.e. computational power doubles every 18 – 24 months
– Major innovations in algorithms and hardware further accelerate this growth

The Economic Incentive for AI is Increasing very Rapidly
Huge investments drive increasingly sophisticated algorithms and structures
– Investment increased 300% from 2015 to 2016; expected to continue

Applications are being developed for more tasks and increasing complexity
Costs are declining exponentially as processing power increases
– Return on Investment strongly positive, in fact exponential

Pace of AI Innovation also increasing due to Democratization
– Watson and other open AI platforms are available for public use
– Free resources for learning AI and developing AI
– Exponential growth in number of coders leads to exponential innovation
– Open sharing practices of innovations and networking drives expansion

The First Wave of AI will Disturb the Job Market

“The automation of factories has already decimated jobs in traditional manufacturing, and the rise of artificial intelligence is likely to extend this job destruction deep into the middle classes, with only the most caring, creative or supervisory roles remaining.”
— Stephen Hawking

“What to do about mass unemployment? This is going to be a massive social challenge. There will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot cannot do better [than a human]. These are not things that I wish will happen. These are simply things that I think probably will happen.”
— Elon Musk

“You cross the threshold of job-replacement of certain activities all sort of at once.”
— Bill Gates

Where will AI be implemented on a wide scale?

The internet:  First and Easiest to implement AI
– Big Data and Network already in place and already connected to AI
– No need for sensors, data linkages, specific localized software, etc.
– AI is already 60% predictive of consumer tastes “you may also like”

– Internet search results nearly always “personalized” through AI

Personal Assistants – Growth rate 35% – all run by AI
– Amazon Echo
– Google Home
– Apple Siri
– Facebook M

Rapid growth of AI supported Virtual Assistants
– Amazon Alexa, Google Assistant, Apple Siri, Facebook M, Microsoft Cortana become ubiquitous
– Spread of virtual assistants to refrigerators, cars, coffee-makers, televisions, thermostats, watering systems, etc.

– Blurring of the lines between smart phones, tablets, televisions, entertainment devices and appliances

Self driving cars, trucks and buses – becoming available starting 2019
– Implementation now ahead of schedule, due to improvements in AI

Automation of semi-skilled and even skilled workers across society
Short term – 2017 – 2021
– Cashier, Lawn mowing, Caregiving (Korea/Japan), Production line, Oil drilling, Industrial repairs, Military applications, Tax preparation, Real Estate brokerage

Longer term – 2022 – 2026
– Cooking, Sewing, Farming, Teaching, Medical, Dental, Legal etc.

How rapidly will AI propagate?

ca. 2017 – 2021
– Very many blue collar jobs will be lost (potential: 47%)
– White collar jobs begin to be threatened (potential: 20%)
– Self-driving cars, trucks, buses become widely available
– AI-assisted virtual assistants become ubiquitous in nearly all devices

ca. 2022 – 2026
– Most new vehicles will have self-driving optional or standard
– Blue-collar jobs decline rapidly (potential: 80%)
– White-collar jobs decline as well (potential 40%)
– Self-improvement of AI algorithms on a large scale
– Beginning of “Neural Lacing” to interconnect AI and Humans

ca. 2027 – 2031
– Neural Lacing becomes widely available
– Humans depend on AI for most tasks
– Beginning of AI “consciousness”, “emotion”, “self-awareness”

ca. 2032 and beyond
– Self-replication / Self-improvement of AI begins
– AI achieves higher level of “intelligence” than humans
– Significant danger of AI overtaking/subjugating Humans